The Dangers of Generalizing from Small Samples

Okay, okay. I was REALLY wrong this year. I saw a few draws early in the 2010 Scott Tournament of Hearts in which both PEI and Manitoba did not look all that good. I generalized from what I saw, and that led me to think these teams aren't very good.

Well those teams did pretty well. PEI ranked number 1 after the round robin, and Manitoba made it into a tie-breaker in the playoffs.

The thing I did get right, though yesterday I'd have thought even this was wrong, was the statement that Team Canada and the BC rink were both strong contenders.

Judging from their records mid-tournament, who'd have thought BC would place third and avoid a tie-breaker? Who'd have thought Team Canada would place 2nd and make the 1-2 page playoff? Probably lots of you readers. I was pretty skeptical, though.

Anyway, it will be fun. Unfortunately I'll have to miss a bunch of the draws: curling myself this evening and doing some acting for a film tomorrow afternoon. But I'll be checking scores as often as possible!