Updating Doc's Attendance Model after Draw #10
Here are the data following the 10th Draw at the 2011 Men's World Curling Championship:
The implication from the 50-50 prize size is that there were slightly over 3000 fans in the arena this afternoon. It didn't look that way to me, but it might have been close. Also, I expect some of the fans spent a good deal of time in "Keith's Patch", a huge party room with music, alcohol sales, food, and visits from the Saskatchewan RoughRiders expected between draws. So maybe there were more people who bought 50-50 tickets but who didn't show up in the arena.
More likely, there are many omitted variables that are important, and the relationship between the 50-50 prize and actual attendance isn't perfectly linear.
We definitely need a grant to estimate the full model.