Updating Doc's Attendance Model after Draw #10

Here are the data following the 10th Draw at the 2011 Men's World Curling Championship:

Drw PdAtt 50-50 Cumul C 8am?
#01 05595 10935 05595 *
#02 05748 10515 11343 *
#03 03948 01818 15219 - *
#04 05633 10765 20924 *
#05 04497 05635 25421
#06 02513 02280 27934 * *
#07 02585 03318 30519
#08 04185 09470 34704 *
#09 02431 01638 37135 - *
#10 03505 06173 40640 *


The implication from the 50-50 prize size is that there were slightly over 3000 fans in the arena this afternoon. It didn't look that way to me, but it might have been close. Also, I expect some of the fans spent a good deal of time in "Keith's Patch", a huge party room with music, alcohol sales, food, and visits from the Saskatchewan RoughRiders expected between draws. So maybe there were more people who bought 50-50 tickets but who didn't show up in the arena.

More likely, there are many omitted variables that are important, and the relationship between the 50-50 prize and actual attendance isn't perfectly linear.

We definitely need a grant to estimate the full model.