Sunday, April 10, 2005

German Curlers and High Variance

When the German team at the Men's 2005 World Championships was good, they were very good! And when they were off, they were not so good. It seemed to me that they would have received the prize for "high variance" team, though I am not quite sure how to measure or test that hypothesis.

One possible explanation for their high variance might have been what Alan refers to as "odd tactical choices", and I agree with him about some of those decisions.

If the explanation isn't in strategy, I wonder about how to measure the variance in shot-making performances. One possibility might be simply to calculate the variance of shooting percentages over the course of the tournament, and maybe look at those or at the co-efficients of variation.

Now that the season is (nearly) over, maybe this will be a good summer project. Does anyone know where one can collect detailed data on shooting percentages?


At 4/10/2005 8:33 p.m., Blogger Alan Adamson said...

How do we get shooting percentages? I think I heard once each shot is scored by some luminary on a 1-4 scale and teh numbers are derived from that. That raw data, the scoring of each individual shot would be great to have. That is what I would live to see standard deviation calculations based on.
I hope we get some education on this.


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