Updating Doc's Attendance Model

Drw PdAtt 50-50 Cumul C 8am?
#01 05595 10935 05595 *
#02 05748 10515 11343 *
#03 03948 01818 15219 - *
#04 05633 10765 20924 *
#05 04497 05635 25421
#06 02513 02280 27934 * *
#07 02585 03318 30519
#08 04185 09470 34704 *
#09 02431 01638 37135 - *
#10 03505 06173 40640 *
#11 05580 14780 46220 *
#12 03083 02918 49303 * *
#13 04554 09623 53857 *
#14 03131 05008 56988
#15 03059 04025 60047 * *
#16 02832 04343 62879
#17 05765 18200 68644 *
T-B 03960 06360 72604
1-2 05689 22460 78293
3-4 04968 11538 83261
Sem 05491 16873 88752
Brz 04839 09260 93591
Chp 05854 30505 99445 *



UPDATE from Alan: I published this by error - I am sure Doc intends some analysis. But looking at the numbers myself I would say there is a VERY large animal spirits component to the 50-50 returns. This is even if Doc's numbers are actually what was paid out rather than raked in, in which case the numbers for the last two sessions should be halved. (Numbers updated as my speculation was correct.)

Updating Doc's Attendance Model through Draw 16

Drw PdAtt 50-50 Cumul C 8am?
#01 05595 10935 05595 *
#02 05748 10515 11343 *
#03 03948 01818 15219 - *
#04 05633 10765 20924 *
#05 04497 05635 25421
#06 02513 02280 27934 * *
#07 02585 03318 30519
#08 04185 09470 34704 *
#09 02431 01638 37135 - *
#10 03505 06173 40640 *
#11 05580 14780 46220 *
#12 03083 02918 49303 * *
#13 04554 09623 53857 *
#14 03131 05008 56988
#15 03059 04025 60047 * *
#16 02832 04343 62879


Since Canada is playing Norway this evening in a game that, before the event began, was touted as being a pre-gold-medal game, ticket sales have been brisk. But now that Canada has clinched first place, I wonder how many fans will actually show up.

Doc's Attendance Model, Updated

Here are the data following the 15th Draw at the 2011 Men's World Curling Championship:

Drw PdAtt 50-50 Cumul C 8am?
#01 05595 10935 05595 *
#02 05748 10515 11343 *
#03 03948 01818 15219 - *
#04 05633 10765 20924 *
#05 04497 05635 25421
#06 02513 02280 27934 * *
#07 02585 03318 30519
#08 04185 09470 34704 *
#09 02431 01638 37135 - *
#10 03505 06173 40640 *
#11 05580 14780 46220 *
#12 03083 02918 49303 * *
#13 04554 09623 53857 *
#14 03131 05008 56988
#15 03059 04025 60047 * *

Quite clearly the previously hypothesized model isn't a perfect predictor of actual attendance. Recall that the model suggested that the actual, butts-in-the-seats attendance is roughly equal to half the dollar prize money in the 50-50 lotteries that are held for each draw. That prize for draw 11 predicts the actual attendance was over 7000 when the capacity of the Brandt Arena is only 6500 (or so) and the paid attendance was only 5580. But still it looks like a reasonable predictor for most of the draws. For example the model predicts the attendance at this morning's draw was about 2000, which seemed about right.

Maybe with all the RoughRider fans showing up for Draw 11 on Green Night, and with all the fun and excitement, people just spent more on the 50-50 lottery than usual.

Attendance at the Women's Worlds

Have you seen the attendance figures for the world's so far? You didn't really have to see the numbers to see that attendance must be pretty low. The venue is small and there aren't all that many people there.

My standard for comparison is the Scotties in Kitchener a few years ago and in London two years ago, and so it may not be a fair comparison. I haven't kept track of the attendance at previous women's world championships, but here are the numbers available so far as posted on Curlcast:

Draw 1 1156
Draw 2 1465
Draw 3 831
Draw 4 1342

Is there a problem with Vernon, BC? Would it be better to hold the world's in bigger markets?

Addendum: Be sure to read the comment for some good insight into these questions.