Doc's Attendance Model, Updated

Here are the data following the 15th Draw at the 2011 Men's World Curling Championship:

Drw PdAtt 50-50 Cumul C 8am?
#01 05595 10935 05595 *
#02 05748 10515 11343 *
#03 03948 01818 15219 - *
#04 05633 10765 20924 *
#05 04497 05635 25421
#06 02513 02280 27934 * *
#07 02585 03318 30519
#08 04185 09470 34704 *
#09 02431 01638 37135 - *
#10 03505 06173 40640 *
#11 05580 14780 46220 *
#12 03083 02918 49303 * *
#13 04554 09623 53857 *
#14 03131 05008 56988
#15 03059 04025 60047 * *

Quite clearly the previously hypothesized model isn't a perfect predictor of actual attendance. Recall that the model suggested that the actual, butts-in-the-seats attendance is roughly equal to half the dollar prize money in the 50-50 lotteries that are held for each draw. That prize for draw 11 predicts the actual attendance was over 7000 when the capacity of the Brandt Arena is only 6500 (or so) and the paid attendance was only 5580. But still it looks like a reasonable predictor for most of the draws. For example the model predicts the attendance at this morning's draw was about 2000, which seemed about right.

Maybe with all the RoughRider fans showing up for Draw 11 on Green Night, and with all the fun and excitement, people just spent more on the 50-50 lottery than usual.