Doc's Attendance Model, Updated
Here are the data following the 15th Draw at the 2011 Men's World Curling Championship:
Quite clearly the previously hypothesized model isn't a perfect predictor of actual attendance. Recall that the model suggested that the actual, butts-in-the-seats attendance is roughly equal to half the dollar prize money in the 50-50 lotteries that are held for each draw. That prize for draw 11 predicts the actual attendance was over 7000 when the capacity of the Brandt Arena is only 6500 (or so) and the paid attendance was only 5580. But still it looks like a reasonable predictor for most of the draws. For example the model predicts the attendance at this morning's draw was about 2000, which seemed about right.
Maybe with all the RoughRider fans showing up for Draw 11 on Green Night, and with all the fun and excitement, people just spent more on the 50-50 lottery than usual.