Sunday, some observations

The Howard, Martin, Simmons, and Burtnyk rinks all have perfect 3-0 records after play on Sunday. My overall impression was that while these rinks are good, they do not seem as dominant as Howard did last year. It will be interesting to see how they do the rest of the week.

Another general impression is that every team I have watched has made some pretty impressive shots.

The morning draw yesterday was available over the internet on CBC, not CurlTV. It looks as if CBC will be webcasting a few more draws in the future as well.

The pasting that Menard gave Nova Scotia in the evening draw was unusual at the Brier. Of course at the club level, scores like 13-2 are not unusual (having been at the short end of such a score myself on Saturday but then gone on to win our next two draws), but it also showed that Menard's rink has the talent to do well in the future.

And while the BC rink is 0-3, they are not that bad. Look who they have played and lost to so far: Ontario, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, all of whom are undefeated!

Finally, there's a chance that Russ Howard as TSN analyst had something useful to say. I don't know because his voice was so soft and the TSN sound engineers didn't or couldn't adjust the volume on his microphone so it would be the same level as Vic's. Here's hoping they get it fixed before the week ends.

Our Picks for the Brier

I didn't get a chance to post this prediction this morning, so I'll do it now. In our local curling club pool, I took Glenn Howard, and Ms. Eclectic bet twice: once on Kevin Martin and once on Brad Gushue.

For some reason, this year the outcome seems far less certain to me than it did last year. I can easily imagine that Manitoba or Saskatchewan could win, too.

The Brier: Ends 8 and 9

End #8: ON 7, NF/L 5

Let's hear it for the free-guard rule! otherwise Howard would be cleaning like mad, clearing red NF/L rocks like mad. So ON starts with two on the button, but NF/L set up guards and draws, with ON removing the drawn rocks.
With Nichols last rock, he made a terrific draw around the corner guard. Hart tried to corner freeze to it, but bumped it a bit and rolled into the open. NF/L can't hit it without jamming it. Nichols tried to freeze to the two at the centre of the house, but he, too, bumped a bit. Howard punched it through to leave ON sitting four with three rocks to go.

Gushue moved all three, but one hit his own, leaving ON sitting second and third shot. Howard removed Gushue's shot, along with one of his own, to sit two. Hit and stick by Gushue for 1, but he gives up the hammer

After 8, ON 7, NF/L 6, Ontario has the hammer going into 9.

[digression: in how many sports do you hear a competitor use the word "adamant"?]

End #9:

Howard begins by putting rocks in the house, and Gushue tries to set up guards. Schille split the guards by accident, leaving the centre open.

More guard and peel; guard and peel, guard and peel...

Did you hear that great sarcastic question from a NF/L curler: "Great ice, eh?"

Hart's second shot looked like a great hit and freeze to their own. Mike Harris commented that Gushue used the wrong turn for his hit (double) and roll, and ended up wide open and didn't remove both ON rocks. So with Howard's first rock, he threw a hit that rolled just a tad to lie two.

Gushue tries a tough draw to lie shot and makes it, leaving Howard to try a gentle chip to score three. They swept like MAD, getting it past the guard and tapped the red shot rock out.

ON 10, NF/L 6, with NF/L having the hammer going home. Let's see if ON throws their first two rocks through the rings. In fact, let's see if NF/L does, too, as Stouten/Manitoba did in the tenth end last night.

Gushue - Howard (Ends 6 and 7)

End #6:

Schille, the second for NF/L missed a peel, followed by a great freeze from Laing, leaving ON in a good position after the seconds' rocks. Nichols mixed them up a bit, but left ON sitting two. Hart's first shot caught some debris (so what's new?), but Nichols wasn't able to double anything off with his second shot.

Gushue is teased with a double opportunity on the right side of the house and makes it with his first shot. Then Howard drew right back to the right side of the house. As a result, Gushue decided to try for a raise double, but got only one, setting up the end for Howard to draw for two.

After 6, ON 5, NF/L 5

End #7:

Just after I comment about teams without the hammer coming into the house with lead rocks, Howard has his lead (Savill, curling at 96%!!) start off with a centre guard. Savill bounced a bit on a freeze attempt, so Korab could remove it. But Laing removed his in turn. They exchanged nose hits for awhile.

Nichols was asked to "jiggle 'em around", which he did, but then Hart drove back the centre guard and bumped all three reds out to the edge of the house. Nichols responded with a double, removing the ON stones from play, leaving a bunch of red NF/L stones around the edge.

Nose hit by Howard on what should have been a hit and roll. Nose hit by Gushue, with very little roll. Nose hit by Howard to sit two, leaving Gushue with a very risky double to score two or three, but if he misses it, NF/L will give up a steal of one (or two?).

But Gushue wrecked on the guard to give up a steal of TWO!! Who'd'a thunk it? (besides Ms. Eclectic!)

Gushue - Howard (fifth end)

There were tonnes of rock lined up on the centre line, and no matter how many times ON tried, they couldn't remove more than one at a time. The result was that Gushue was able to set up some strategic guards with his shots, and Howard couldn't do much about it.

Steal of one for NF/L to lead 5 -3 at the midway break.

Gushue - Howard (ends 3 and 4)

End #3 (Gushue 2, Howard 1 going into it)

So why didn't Howard freeze into that pocket at the end of the second end? Anyway, Gushue made good shots, and Howard didn't, so, as Alan noted, Gushue picked up his two.

To lead off the third end, Korab's first two shots drifted behind the t-line for NF/L. Savill was unable to freeze tight to one of them for ON, allowing NF/L to clear some. Then with a better freeze, NF/l was able double off the rocks on the other side of the house.

Lots of action inside the house, with only one guard that isn't in play. Unusual strategies at this level. Nichols (NF/L) made an impressive hit and freeze, followed by a neato tap by Hart for Ontario.

What a fabulous double from Gushue to lie two with his last rock! Howard tried a thin double, leading to yet another measurement (and more banter between the teams), and (barely) gets his two. Ontario leads 3 - 2.
As Alan says, "Don't you just love curling 'trash talk'?" It's a so much nicer thing than basketball or football.

End #4 (Ontario 3, NF/L 2):

It looks as if the dominant strategy at the top level these days is for teams without the hammer to throw their rocks to the top of the 4' and then set up a centre-line guard. Ontario, following this strategy, started this way. Korab missed his shot, but Schille made an excellent double followed by a great hit and roll to leave NF/L in good position to get two this end.

After some exchanges, NF/L was left with two biters at the top of the 12'; Hart hit and rolled just a bit to sit as shot rock. Nichols overthrew his second shot, though, setting up a Howard attempt for a long double, but he ticked the rock in the back, pushing it behind the ON guard.

Let me ask again, "What is with the ice?"

Gushue picked, but Howard couldn't capitalize, setting up an easy draw for two for NF/L.

NF/L 4, ON 3

Gushue's admonition to his sweepers was very telling: "Keep your brooms on the ice!"

Gushue-Howard

End #1:

Gushue force Howard to draw for 1 and they barely make it. Nice banter as Newfoundland say informally "I think you have it", and Ontario respond "Then why not just let us have it?" Measurement confirms it is Ontario taking 1 they did not really want (and it looked the other way to me). The mutual respect is delightful. I am not sure how many ends I will be here - hope Doc can take over.

End #2:

Genius shot from the Ontario second at a key point. Opens the end to Hart's just slightly deep bury behind a centre guard ("Actually came out the other side"). Nichols makes not quite a freeze but places his rock perfectly behind a guard with Ontario backing. Hart comes a fair bit short to the top of the four-foot in front of the Newfoundland rock. Nichols clears the front guard. (I am puzzled why.) Howard taps back and it is a very confusing house, with a Gushue rock fronted and backed by Ontario rocks, all wide open to taps.

Pretty good Gushue shot clears away some of the mess. Howard's response is just off.
Gushue does get 2.

The game is on!

The Top Teams Move on to the Play-offs

After watching the Brier all week (well, whenever I could sneak a peek away from my work), I had the impression that as good a curler as Kevin Martin is, he just was not quite as good as the top three teams: Ontario, Manitoba, and NF/L. I was glad he made it to the play-offs, but the defeat of Alberta by Manitoba in the 3-4 game seemed reasonable, given their apparent abilities demonstrated throughout the week.

As we go into today's semi-final, I am confident that any one of these three teams will serve Canada well at the World's next month in Edmonton. That confidence makes me a bit less upset than I would otherwise be at the ice conditions in Hamilton. If one of the better teams were eliminated because of bad luck with debris on the ice, I would be more-than-disappointed (see here for more). But the ice conditions impart a randomness to the outcomes of the games that provides strong support for the use of the page play-off system, where the top two teams from the round robin are less likely to be eliminated from the final simply because of some random events on the ice.

The Brier: Predictions and BetsAn Algebraic Summary of Our Selections

Last night at our curling club, Ms. Eclectic and I entered the pool to predict who would win the 2007 Tim Hortons Brier. Ms. Eclectic thinks it will be a toss-up between Glenn Howard (Ontario) and Kevin Martin (Alberta). Deep in my heart, though, I predict Glenn Howard will win.

Who did we pick in the club pool? Not Glenn Howard; and our choices were reasonable because of how the pool works: the pot is split between everyone who correctly picks the winner.

Given that we curl in Ontario, and (as a result) given that we expect most of our fellow club members would pick Howard to win the Brier, we realized that if we also picked Howard, and Howard won, then the size of the prize (split among everyone who picked Howard to win) would be pretty small.

So, even though I think there's a somewhat higher chance Howard will win, I picked Brad Gushue (NF/L) to win in the pool, and Ms. Eclectic very reasonably picked Kevin Martin.

Algebraically, E(W) = (pS)/N, where

• E(W) is each bettor's probablistic, expected dollar winnings,
  
• p represents that bettor's subjectives guess as to the probability that his/her selection will win the Brier;
  
• S is the size of the pot that is to be divided between all those who correctly pick the winner; and
  
• N is the number of people each bettor thinks will have selected the same winner s/he did.

For Howard, p might be high, but N is expected to be high, too, offsetting the high value of p. For Martin and Gushue, we expect that N will be much lower so that if we do pick the winner, we will win more money.

Note: this strategy assumes risk neutrality on our part. It also assumes that nobody else (or not many others) in the club have the same betting strategy.

Team Canada Repeats, Defeating Saskatchewan 8-5 at the Tournament of Hearts

It was not a super difficult prediction, but before the 2007 Scotties Tournament of Hearts began, I wrote,

Going out (not very far on a very thick limb), my prediction for the champion: Kelly Scott, last year's champion.

Saskatchewan looked very good throughout the round robin and then defeated Team Canada in the 1-2 page play-off. But in the final match, Jan Betker (skip of Team Saskatchewan) misread the ice a bit, and ended up curling only 74% to Kelly Scott's 82%. All the percentages are available here at Curlcast (and, joy of joys, if you use that direct link, you can resize the window!). Betker's misreading of the ice perhaps played a role in the low shooting percentage for Inglis (Saskatchewan 2nd) as well.

Team Canada will soon head off to Japan for the Women's World Championships. And I must say that based on the week-long performances, I am happy they are representing Canada there.

Meanwhile, we have a week-long drought before the Brier begins next weekend.