Big Comeback by Saskatchewan to Win the 2011 Scott Tournament of Hearts

As everyone expected, the final was a close one. But Team Canada jumped off to a big lead, scoring three in the first end and led 6-3 after five ends, and Saskatchewan was in trouble for the rest of the first half. Then Saskatchewan scored three themselves in the 6th end to tie the game. Team Canada still had the advantage, having the hammer, but then Saskatchewan stole one in the tenth end to win the tournament.

I'm not sure how well they'll do in the worlds, but they've shown some pretty impressive ability for the past two years, and I expect they'll do quite well.

Side note: in the end the curling percentages were 84% for SK and only 74% for TC. All four Saskatchewan curlers curled over 80% but only Lawes curled over 80% for TC, with the front end curling in the 70s and skip Jennifer Jones curling only 68%.

2011 Scotties Final: Team Canada vs. Saskatchewan: Second half

I love these breaks. I get a chance to get up, walk around, rummage for some food (nice muffins that Ms. Eclectic sent back with me when I returned to Regina from Ontario; also some celery that was surprisingly not moldy).

The differential in curling percentages between the two teams has narrowed considerably. Through the first half, SK curled 85% and TC curled 82%. The TSN announcers all remarked that SK has curled pretty well. But they have also suggested that TC leads more because of good strategies compared with those of SK.

End #6

Askin starts with two near the center line in the rings. Kalenchuk (lead, SK) starts with two corner guards. Guard, peel, etc. TSchneider removes one of the TC rocks and sticks in the rings; Lawes hits it and rolls to the other side.

ARRRGHHH Can we do without the interviews during the end????

SK hits and sticks on the TC shot stone.

ARRRGHHH please make sure you show the shots!!

KSchneider draws around a TC guard, but drifts a bit behind the t-line. Jones tries to follow it and freeze to it, but wrecks on the guard and spins to the centre. So Holland draws another one around the guard, and this one is in front of the t-line for second shot. In response, Jones tries a come-around to the button and drifts to the back four for shot rock. Wow, Jones is on! Holland will try the same path, roughly, to try to tap it back to score three. A really, REALLY tough shot attempted. She makes it to score 3!

Can 6, SK 6

Interestingly both Russ and Linda were talking as if they thought SK should not try that shot...

End #7

SK starts the end with a tight centre guard, and TC comes around it to the top 4'. SK removes that rock, and TC removes the SK rock, but neither managed to roll behind the centre guard. But TSchneider did, leaving SK with a guard and a rock behind it top 8'. Officer peeled the guard but missed the double (as of now, she has the lowest curling percentage on the ice at 77%). SK puts up another guard, which again Officer peels without getting the double. KSchneider replaces the guard, but it's too tight; Lawes runs the guard back, but her rock rolls over as a corner guard, and leaves a SK rock on the corner 12' on the opposite side. KSchneider's second shot is touching the top8', SK sitting 2. Lawes hits the outside SK rock, trying to roll behind the other one, but rolls out. TC is not making the good shots right now.

Holland tries to tap back the SK rock in the top of the rings, but I'm not sure this a good choice since it will leave a double for Jones. Russ and Linda seem to agree with me on this. But the shooter looks as if it rolled out and she jammed the double, leaving a SK rock in the back 4'. Next shot, I'd draw around a guard and force one, but Holland tries to hit and roll; instead, her shooter rolls out, leaving a peel and a blank opportunity for Jones.

Can 6, SK 6

End #8

I'm still shaking my head about the last end. This one opens with a SK centre guard, a TC rock in the rings, SK hit and roll but not behind the guard, TC hit and roll out. Seconds rocks: TSchneider goes around the guard to the back of the button, Officer bumps it back a bit and rolls to the side 8'; hit by TSchneider is open, but TC ignores it and draws behind the centre guard to the top 8'. Brushing error on KSchneider's rock, and she wrecked on the guard, sitting open top 4'. Lawes removes that rock and bumps back another SK rock. Nose hit by KSchneider on shot rock. Another nose hit, this one by Lawes. Going to skip's stones, SK is shot, but TC has two that are really close in the top 8'. Nice hit and roll behind a guard (mostly) by Holland, forcing a draw by Jones to the top of the button with her first stone. Great shot. Holland will try to follow it down and freeze it to force TC to take one point this end, but it's barely a corner freeze, leaving Jones with a bump for two, but ends up taking only one.

Can 7, SK 6

End #9

Rocks rolling into the rings and being removed. A succession of nose hits leaves a TC corner guard. TSchneider nose hits it, too. So Jones asks Officer to draw around it, but she wrecks on the guard, rolling into the rings; TSchneider hits it and rolls, but not behind a guard. Lawes hits and rolls out. KSchneider clears the guard but drifts too far back. As expected, Lawes freezes to that rock. KSchneider misses again in the sense that her second shot was light, ending outside the rings. Jones wrecks on the guards. Holland draws around the guards but is half open. Jones barely peeled it, leaving a draw for one for Holland.

Can 7, SK 7

End #10

With the score tied, TC has the hammer coming home and is in great shape to win the 2011 Scott Tournament of Hearts, despite not having the higher curling percentage.

SK starts with a long centre guard. TC draws to the top 4'. SK draws to top 12'. Askin flashes on a pick attempt, so the game is afoot. Officer peels the long guard. TSchneider puts up another long guard. Officer peels again. KSchneider replaces the long guard. Lawes peels the guard. KSchneider's next guard attempt is too tight to the rings and the other SK guard, but Lawes misses the double attempt. Time out. The coach wants SK to play a tap up; Amber Holland opts for a come-around. It's shot rock, but it's pretty exposed again, having cleared the guard by at least 8". Jones can hit it and hopes for a roll behind the guards. But she rolls out to the edge of the rings. So with her last rock, Holland will try the draw one more time. Draw to the button and fully guarded. The only shot left for TC is a double raise: SK-TC-SK to leave TC shot for the win. She made the shot but the raised rock rolled out, and Saskatchewan wins the 2011 Scott Tournament of Hearts.

2011 Scotties Final: Team Canada vs. Saskatchewan: First half

After Alan did so much, presenting ongoing updates and analyses throughout the week, I'll be starting for the final and he'll contribute when he is able.

This should be a good game and a close game. The teams finished at the top after the round robin, and the teams finished 1-2 in curling percentages.

End #1 [Doc]

No messing around, getting a feel for the ice. Both skips put rocks in play. Halfway through, SK has two rocks in the 12' plus one in the 4', and Team Canada [TC] removed the 4' rock and rolled to the button. SK hit and rolled a bit, but then Lawes (vice, TC) hit and rolled behind a TC guard to put some pressure on SK. Kim Schneider (vice, SK) froze to that rock. Lawes tried to follow her down, but rubbed on the guard and is sitting wide open in the 4'. For Holland's first shot, if she doubles off the reds, she'll be sitting 3; nope, overcurled just a bit for a nose hit. Now with her first rock, Jones has a chance for a thin double. She removed one and pushed the other far enough back to be 1st and 2nd shot. Holland tries a freeze/draw but bounces out in the open, leaving Jones a hit for three.

Can 3, SK 0

End #2 [Doc]

I have to agree with Alan about wanting to see the first rocks. I like the current Capital One Aspire ads, but I'd rather see the curling.

I see from the comments that Alan thinks it's over already. hmmm.

As the play unfolds, TC has a bunch of rocks lined up near the centre line, and Tammy Schneider (2nd for SK) wasn't able to remove but one of them. Lawes hit and rolled, but not behind a guard, to sit 3. Kim Schneider curled a very nice, soft-touch double. Lawes hits and rolls the other way. KSchneider splits one of the guards onto the rings to sit 2.

Jones removes one of the SK rocks but also removes a TC rock from the back of the rings. Holland draws in, but is a foot too deep, leaving a nasty possible hit and roll for Jones, but she rolls out of the rings. Holland has a draw to the 8' for two.

Can 3, SK 2

AAA: Hey maybe it is not over!

End #3 [Doc]

How many of you find yourselves reminiscing about Flower Power and The Turtles? I do every time they show that M&M ad.

Great discussions by Linda and Russ! and indeed the split by KSchneider was a terrific shot for SK. Jones opens with a shot to the button, SK with a centre guard, then SK freezes to the TC rock on the button, then TC bumps it a bit. Three rocks in the rings, all with slight separation. TSchneider hits and rolls to the 12' to remove one TC rock. Jill Officer (TC second) tries to freeze but bumps a bit. Nice hit and flop by TSchneider, freezing her shot to another SK rock in the top 4'. Office blasts down the ice but wrecks on the centre guard. Kim Schneider does a nice bump of her own that then removes the only remaining TC rock, leaving SK sitting 3. Lawes tries a double or triple but has only a nose hit. KSchneider removes that TC rock, but rolls over in front of some of her own, leaving a double for Lawes, but she removes only one, and pushes the others a bit. TC is shot rock, but Holland can hit and roll to the other side of the rings and likely force TC to take only one.

Well, she rolls away a bit.... enough that Jones opts to attempt to remove only that one rock and maybe roll behind the other SK rocks, but she rolls the other way. A hit and stick by Holland would force Jones to go for only one, she doesn't stick, but she stays in the rings. Jones draws for one.

Can 4, SK 2

AAA - this is getting interesting. I wanted just to go watch the Oscars!

End #4 [Doc]

Wow! after three ends, SK is out-curling TC 90% - 77%. That one big end was all TC has done to dominate so far.

TC starts this end with a rock in the four-foot and a centre guard from Askin. SK replies with a corner guard but then they go around the TC centre guard. More guards and peel attempts.

My goodness! TSchneider removes a centre guard, and in the process bumps up a SK rock to the button and it curled behind the TC guards. Pretty shot, but TC still has two rocks in the rings and is in good shape to force SK to take one. So Jones puts up another centre guard, and KSchneider removes it and pushes another guard to the side. Lawes draws up to the SK shot rock. Holland asks KSchneider to attempt a raise double, but she misses big. Jones puts up another guard. As the end draws to a close, it looks as if Holland will be lucky to score one. She puts up a long guard to block a double raise takeout, but that leaves a corner in-off. I got the impression from the look on Holland's face that she might not have seen the in-off possibility, but that sure is hard to imagine. Jones raises the corner stone, but with not enough oomph, leaving SK sitting one. Holland throws hers through on the side, happy to take one.

Can 4, SK 3

End #5 [Doc]

SK begins with a centre guard followed by a come-around; TC begins with a rock in the top 4' but Askin [lead, TC] comes up just short of the rings with her second shot. Officer does a nice job of removing a centre guard AND a SK rock in the rings. With her first rock, KSchneider removes one TC stone and pushes the other to the back of the rings; Lawes for TC misses her attempt at a double, removing only one SK rock and flopping to the side. KSchneider hits that rock, but rolls out of the rings, a disappointing shot. So Lawes has an easy hit and stick to lie 2. Holland hits and sticks. Jones hits and sticks. Holland hit but jammed the TC rock on the back one, leaving an open draw for two for Jones.

Can 6, SK 3

AAA: I am pretty sure I am off to red carpet and awards. And it is funny, I have never remotely liked Jones and her team but they sure deserve respect!

Final End, Bronze Medal Game - Nova Scotia Runs Ontario out of Rocks and wins

After nine ends, Nova Scotia leads 9-5 and has outcurled Ontario 85% to 74%. But those curling percentages don't tell the whole story: The lead for Ontario (Weagle) has curled 92%, but the rest of the team has been in the 60s. In other words, Ontario has lost this game at least as much as Nova Scotia has won it. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I agree with Alan's comment that they don't care as much about this game (but then who knows what's going on in their minds). I can readily imagine they were more pumped for the 3-4 playoff, but I should think this game would also be viewed as significant.

As has happened before, once Ontario gave up a big end, they didn't seem to be able to bounce back. And as both Russ and Linda pointed out throughout the game, Ontario strategies often left much to be explained. Even I, a novice, wondered about some of the calls in the 9th end.

In the 10th end, as expected, Ontario struggles to put up guards and curl around them. Nova Scotia tries to clear them. Eventually, Heather Smith-Dacey knocked out one of the three Ontario rocks in the rings, to run Ontario out of rocks. For some reason, Curlcast awarded Ontario 2 points and posted that Nova Scotia won 9-7. Not that it matters for anything other than gamblers, but is that the way official scores are always reported? Seems odd to me, since the Ontario skip, Homan, could just as easily have thrown another draw and ended up with a score of 9-8. How odd!

I'm happy to watch championship curling, but this ain't it. I'm with Alan on this one: it wouldn't break my heart if they abandon the experiment of having a bronze-medal game.

Scotties Bronze Medal Match

No commitment from me but here at least let me start.

END #1: Looks like an open first endd is in the cards. NS whiff on a takeout and Ontario with the hammer start to work on the deuce. Ontario go right through the house. We are back to dueling nosehits. Oooppsss! Ontario go for a freeze attempt. A little bump. NS pick the Ontario rock perfectly, leaving their own. Back to nosehits. Ontario blanks.

END #2: TSN is back into bad habits, rejoining the match after a couple of early rocks. But then who is likely to be watching? NS put up a center guard and come around, with Ontario behind them and now angle-frozen. So NS freezes back. Conga line is forming! "That's a great miss" - Ontario wreck on the guard, slide in, and open the center. NS remove the Ontario rock that slid in. Ontario clean up the house, leaving themselves shot behind a degree of cover. "I like it if you make it", says Smith (? - not sure). Risky NS shot works - really fine. Miskew gets shot back but slightly exposed. NS go for another runback - just excellent though the shooter is lost. NS sit one. Ontario freeze bumps too much. Smith removes it and rolls behind a corner guard. Sorry - mind wandered - I got hungry. Homan must draw against three - well, or hit for one.
1-0 Ont

END #3: Back at it again. I think returning to the next end when it is underway is disrespectful to the viewers. TSN evidently disagrees. I have started mostly watching golf so expect far lower quality, and to be honest, if TSN cannot be bothered to shoew us all the play, I have my problems. Returning now, it is a pretty wild house as Ontario angle freeze onto a NS rock behind the button. There is a lot of cover and a lot of backing. NS do not quite freeze to the angle freezer. Homan taps it back and there is a cluster around the button. Smith wrecks on a guard and the complexity is getting crazier. Homan has a debate with her team - she chooses the higher risk and seems to sit three. Dacey is out to 'intervene'. He wants violence ('pounding that rock'); the plan is to give up a steal of one. She is too thin - Ontario steal 2.
3-0 Ont

END #4: Late in the end Miskew makes a really bad miss and NS can put three counters into the house. And they do, with two slightly covered. Homan removess one, missing her double hope. Smith replaces it. Homan removes it but leaves Smith a pretty open hit for four. The shooter rolls away and they take three.
3-3

END #5: Homan wrecks on a guard and gives up a steal of one.
4-5 NS

END #6: Ontario miss and take one.
4-4

END #7: NS get a draw to the four-foot for two. And make it.
6-4 NS

END #8: Homan saves her one.
6-5 NS

(You may have noticed my attention has drifted. The bronze medal match here is a bit like the proverbial kissing of the sister.)

END #9: NS can hit for six! They hit for three.
9-5 NS

I will leave the tenth end to anyone else who might want to stride in.

I am not sure this will encourage further bronze medal games.

It's Deja Vu All Over Again!

One of the amusing outcomes of the Page playoff system is exactly what we are facing today! The same old same old!
Tonight Canada and Saskatchewan, who met in Page Playoff 1 vs 2 two evening ago are back at it, now for the final.
NS and Ontario, who played yesterday midday in Page Playoff 3 vs 4 are back at it now.
I'm not sure what I make of it; it is amusing, and it is actually almost what one might expect (at least when there is a bronze medal match). Do we get overexposed to the teams?

Who Scheduled The Scotties Final?

Personally I would have been happier with the bronze medal match in the morning and the final in the afternoon (Eastern time). As it stands, this evening's match runs against the Oscars, and this has to REALLY hit the audience numbers, general interest, and the advertising revenue for TSN.
One might argue that we are talking about different audiences but I do not believe that for a second, planted firmly in both potential audiences. I am an enthusiastic curling spectator, and doubt I will watch much of the final except before the Oscars start and during ads in that show.
Hence, I may not be live-blogging.
As for this afternoon, I am in front of the screen, but Martin Kaymer is working his way to #1 in the golf world, and that may attract more than a bronze medal match. I do not think I have ever watched a curling bronze medal match at the Scotties. Has it been possible? (A casual inspection of the 2008 draw schedule shows no such match.) OTOH, in support of watching is that I really liked both these teams this week.

Variance, Schmariance

To see if my off-handed impression was correct, namely that Saskatchewan had a more variable performance in the round robin than did Team Canada, I entered the team percentage score for each draw into a spreadsheet. Unfortunately, when I try to copy the spreadsheet into Blogger, I lose the formatting.

But here are the results:

Variance Team Canada: 34.854

Variance Saskatchewan: 27.273

The range in performances was from 75 to 89 for Saskatchewan and from 75 to 93 for Team Canada.

It looks as if what I saw as team variance was just a lot more scores in the 70s for Saskatchewan.

And maybe there was more variance in the individual performances on Saskatchewan and that's what stuck in my mind. But I'll leave it to someone else to collect the data and do the stats for that possible hypothesis. The stats are available here.

Let's Do It All, All Over Again

Canada edged Saskatchewan Friday night to move on to the championship game.

Then Ontario soundly defeated Nova Scotia Saturday morning to win a berth in the semi-final this evening.

Then Saskatchewan beat Ontario in the semi-final Saturday evening to advance to the championship game, to be played Sunday evening.

So here's the setup:

• 12:30 Sunday (Saskatchewan time!), Ontario and Nova Scotia meet each other again, this time for the bronze medal.
• 5:30 Sunday (Saskatchewan time), Canada meets Saskatchewan again.

Ontario has beaten Nova Scotia twice so far in the tournament and at every position had higher curling percentages during the round robin. If they can control the downs when they miss a shot and can gain some resilience, they should win the bronze handily. [It turns out Alan was right when he said we'd see Homan again, but I'm not sure he was talking about the bronze medal game.]

The championship game should be very good. Team Canada was pretty consistently good throughout the tournament, but they did lose three games, including one to Saskatchewan. There seems to be a bit more variance in the performance of the Holland rink from Saskatchewan (a testable hypothesis, I guess, but I ain't doing it right now). My impression throughout what I saw of the tournament was that Team Saskatchewan was often brilliant but also had some pretty dismal flat periods. [Update: a test of the hypothesis reveals I'm off base with this supposition.]

Saskatchewan defeated Team Canada in the round robin and forced them to an extra end before losing in the Page 1-2 playoff game. Add to that the fact that after a week visiting home in Ontario, I'm now back in Regina, SK, and I'll pick Saskatchewan to win this year's Scott Tournament of Hearts (though I wouldn't be disappointed to have Jones and the current Team Canada represent Canada once again at the Worlds).

Scotties Semi - Ontario - Saskatchewan

It is starting soon!

END #1: Saskatchewan has the initial hammer. Ontario go into the house and SK decide to play the cleaning game. Once again we are seeing long misses early. And the normal open-house exchange of rocks. The exchange was made a bit more complicated by an Ontario back-biter but Kim Schneider fixed that handly. Holland blanks as intended.

END #2: Ontario comes into the front four-foot behindtheir guard (SK rock back in the four-foot),center SK guard. SK sits on top of Ont rock. Ont puts a rock angled off that most recent SK rock. SK peels front guard - still these teams are not lacking for aggression! Ont pop up a center guard. SK pop one Ontario rock out of the house. Ont pop an SK rock out. This may well really be fun! Kim Schneider puts a rock in the four-foot but it is open and inviting a nasty double. Which Ontario makes with delight (actually a triple). In the end SK take the one they are forced to take.
1-0 SK

END #3: I missed much of the early action but just saw Ontario remove three front SK rocks. Amd then attention drifted. Sorry!

So at the end of END 4:
3-2 SK

END #5: SK are filling the house behind a little front cover, with the help of at least one ontario small error. Miskew puts a rock on the button in the midst of many SK rocks. SK put a rock up in front of it. Ontario pop it back a bit but it remains live. SK puts a shot rock on the nose of the Ontario rock on the button. Ontario plan a rather nutty runback; it achieves at best a small fraction of its goals, but mostly removes Ontario rocks in the house. SK decide to toss another rock onto the button, as Ontario has a raise still possible. And that is a beauty! This has largely neutralized the Ontario raise. Well, we will see. Homan misses completely and Saskatchewan steal two.
5-2 SK

END #6: Sorry - forced to reboot by the most stupid piece of software on the planet, that seems unable to be updated without a reboot - Acrobat Reader. How does Adobe get away with this crap?
OK where are we? SK have three rocks cuddling the button. Homan going to blast. And she gets one - a very good shot if not a great outcome.
5-3 SK

END #7: Warring still with Adobe (because of curling!) I am still trying to figure out what is going on. SK have two rocks in the house, Ontario two up front. Miskew gets rid of one SK rock in the house. Lots of possibility up front for Ontario. SK put another rock into the back of the four-foot and all the commentary is negative. Ontario do not quite find the pocket created, coming up a little short. Kim Schneider bumps the Ontario rock, but there is still a mix around the four-foot. SK has the counter. Homan moves rocks but not obviously helpfully. SK toss another rock into the four-foot, and nobody seems to feel good about it. And I see why - it gives Homan a pocket for a steal. And she takes the opportunity with a lovely shot. Holland's pick attempt leaves Ontario a steal of one!
5-4 SK

Let me say these have been two really attractive curling matches today.

END #8: OK maybe I have been bad, basically mentally conceding this to SK. But I am back. Let me just say the eighth end is interesting. Shot is SK but there is quite the little army of Ontario rocks around it. Generally the house is open. Kim Schneider cleans up big time leaving one of each team's rock in play in the house.
Exchanges occur. Holland removes all Ontario rocks! Homan clears the house and Holland blanks. What great play!
5-4 SK

END #9: Once again I have been distracted, partly because I think SK have this in the bag. But Homan is making the end really interesting. She has rocks in the fron twelve-foot, and now a guard. SK do a tap to make one of their rocks the counter but things remain interesting. Miskew makes a nice tap-back and Ontario count one. Kim Schneider corrects that, removing all Ontario rocks that mattered. OK except for one, counting, and Ontario add one. Oopps. Schneider leaves Ontario an interesting opportunity. Oh my Homan almost makes it perfect but she rolls just a tad too far. It is still a challenge for Holland. And, as she has so often been, brilliant! Homan misses and leaves an open draw for two, and she makes it.

I hate seeing Ontario dismissed but I also think Saskatchewan deserved the final, even more than that!

We will see Rachel Homan and team again!

Well whoops! It is not over!

End #10 I think as an old coot I was being rational. And we will soon be into rock countdown.
SK win, as I assumed.

Team Canada Wins the Page 1-2 Playoff against Saskatchewan, but it took them an extra end to do it

Team Canada and Saskatchewan both scored each time they had the hammer in the first half of tonight's game, but Saskatchewan deuced twice and led after five ends 5-2. But then in the second half, Jones's Team Canada scored two in the 6th end with the hammer, stole two in the 7th, and scored 3 in the 9th to go into the final end with a 9-7 lead.

During the first half, the score reflected the curling percentages as Holland's Saskatchewan rink out-curled and out-scored Team Canada. And then the roles were reversed in the second half, with Team Canada out-curling and out-scoring Saskatchewan.

But in the 8th and 10th ends, Saskatchewan scored two, and with their deuce in the 10th end, they tied the match, forcing an eleventh end. It came down to skips' stones, and Amber Holland (who struggled reading the ice, along with her vice, Kim Schneider) underthrew both her shots just a tad, and Jennifer Jones didn't have to throw her last rock to win.

As a result of today's play, Ontario plays Nova Scotia in tomorrow morning's game, and the winner of that one faces Saskatchewan in the afternoon. I'll be traveling during some of the games, but I'm looking forward to watching as much of them as I can.

Scotties 2011 Tiebreaker

And there is only one!

After their start it is impressive that BC is here and still alive. And it is not as if Nova Scotia has had an easy trip getting here.

Sasha Carter, I am sure, has insisted on being part of this match, despite her pregnancy.

END #1: Everybody seemed happy with keeping this end pretty open (I imagine they want their heart rates at a reasonable level even if we viewers like greater stress). On skip stones Scott makes a big miss on a rock Smith had put with BC backing and behind a BC corner guard. BC still lie two, it appears (but plan to measure!). Smith makes one for sure and the measure is underway. And indeed she gets two!
NS 2 - BC 0

END #2: I doubt Smith is instinctively so aggressive, but she chooses on her first second rock to put a guard up in front of her rocks in the house to join the Scott guards flainking it. BC gets a good runback but Nova Scotia still has two in the house and they come around into the house behind a BC rock. A BC runback attempt fails though it does open the center. NS put up a center guard. BC clear the guard and somehow miss hitting anything else. NS put another rock into the house behind cover (on the button). Sorry, had to to the door so missed a couple of shots.
OTOH after Smith's first shot things look much as before. Scott's first rock opens the center abit with little other obvious effect. Smith elects to fill the house with her own rocks and force a single on Scott. This seems to me to be very smart, and so it goes, except Scott wrecks on a guard and Smith steals one.
3-0 NS

END #3: My mind wandered (3-0 scores after two ends do that to me) and I have missed teh development of the wackiest end so far. Schraeder's second shot leaves a housse with the button crowded, two BC and two NS rocks, flanked in front by a BC rock and behind by a NS rock. Smith rather mischievously adds another NS rock to the mix at the button (this is Mark Dacey's wife, the ultimate hitter?).
Scott parks a rock on top of the NS rock on the button and we have an intervention from Mark Dacey. Smith returns the favor. Scott's final shot is a total whiff and Smith steals another one. It seems she does not really need the hammer.
4-0 NS

END #4: NS steal two more as Scott misses an open draw to the six-foot. One wonders why BC fought so hard to get to this game.

END #5: Nova Scotia try hard to give away points (they whiff a peel, and on another peel leave the shooter out front) but manage to give away only two.
6-2 NS

END #6: Apologies, as my mind wandered.
8-2 NS

My mind may go on vacation.

END #7: Not on vacation yet! Schraeder makes two great shots and NS follows with great responses and then Scott makes a beautiful corner freeze to a protected NS rock. Smith decides she does not mind giving up two but really does not want to yield three so tries to prevent that and guards to push Scott to draw for two. As she does.
8-4 NS

I must say I barely noticed this Nova Scotia rink early in the week but they have really impressed today. Of course the story coming in, losing their skip (Colleen Jones!) to illness, with Smith having to step up as skip, were part of why I was ready to dismiss them.

END #8: Scott leaves Smith a draw for two, and there is no way she is missing today. Well, in fact she does, going long, so NS take only one.
9-4 NS.

END #9: Some pretty big misses by NS have BC lying three as skip rocks start. Smith clears away two of the offenders! (And it not far off clearing them all.) Scott replaces the lost pair with one. Smith removes the one she missed last time. Scott can draw for two to an open house. And does.
9-6 NS

END #10: This should be a running out of rocks countdown but we will see.
BC's third and skip are shooting in the 60%'s and that is certainly no way to win. All of NS are in the 80s. NS show early they can do great picks on guards and move one over. And then BC leave guards that can be doubled, and NS instead jam so there are BC and NS rocks by the center line up front. Carter squeaks into the house by a guard beautifully but it goes a bit deep. NS's next peel is a bit better, removing one guard and pushing the other well off center. BC goes in beside the remaining relevant guard. NS plan to peel it and do, losing the shooter too (as intended). Schraeder puts a rock in the house on the other side. NS starts the countdown but get only one. First BC skip rock comes into the house in the center front twelve-foot. Smith removes it. Last rocks now. Smith will need only an open hit to win. Scott puts another target on the button. OK this has to be a bit of butterflies for Smith - a really easy shot to win! She makes it!

It is a sweet story for this unlikely rink, and a sad one for BC, who fought back so hard from a rotten start here. But that is sports. My wife can barely watch most sporting events because she hates to see people lose.

Another Request for TSN

In the final end when there is time pressure, please keep the ticking clocks visible. They provide very valuable information in understanding what is happening.

The Rankings, Going into the Playoffs

Looking at the rankings/ratings of the players as the 2011 Scott playoffs begin, I see that for every single position, Team Canada has the number one ranked player (see this for the full rankings).

Among the teams that qualified for the playoffs, the other striking feature of the player rankings is that for every position, Saskatchewan players are second, and Ontario players are third, with BC and Nova Scotia players ranked below the leaders. If player ratings have any predictive value, they indicate (albeit with considerable imprecision I expect) that Team Canada will win the gold, Saskatchewan will win the silver, and Ontario the bronze. But of course the predictive value has a substantial margin for error (confidence interval in stat-speak). As the saying goes for most sports, "Any given team on any given day...."

A Rude Question

How on earth did the team from Newfoundland/Labrador qualify for the 2011 Scott Tournament of Hearts? They were clearly outmatched by the rest of the field in ability, and it seems a miracle they won even one game in the tournament. Did they just get lucky in the provincial playdowns, or does NF/L have no one better to challenge them?

Heading Into the Play-offs

After the round robin, the play-offs are set.... mostly.... for the 2011 Scott Tournament of Hearts. Saskatchewan lost to BC but still finished in first place. The Holland rink from Saskatchewan scored 4 in the 3rd end to lead 5-1, but then Scott stole points in the last five straight ends to win 8-5. Holland curled only 58%, which was reminiscent of some of her play early in the provincial playdowns. Saskatchewan meets Team Canada in the 1-2 playoff, and at least has two shots to get back on track after some seriously lacklustre performances near the end of round robin play.

With the win against Saskatchewan, Kelly Scott's BC rink finishes the round robin with a record of 7-4 and, as a result, qualifies to play in Friday afternoon's tie-break against Nova Scotia, who also finished with a 7-4 record. That was a long, hard comeback for BC both in their last round robin game, and hanging in after getting off to a poor start for the tournament.

Meanwhile, in TSN's featured game, Team Canada under Jones got off to a big start (as Alan posted) when Kleibrink, skip of Alberta, missed several shots early on, and Alberta was unable to recover. The loss eliminated Alberta from the playoffs and guaranteed Team Canada second place in the round robin.

And, finally, Ontario's finish against Quebec was rendered irrelevant by the other outcomes. Since Ontario had defeated both BC and Nova Scotia, even if they lost and finished tied with those teams, Ontario would have finished in third place. But Ontario stole one in the 10th end and defeated Quebec to finish in clear third position with an 8-3 record (the same as Team Canada, but Team Canada has second place, having defeated Ontario in the round robin).

At this point, with the fading and spotty performances of Ontario and Saskatchewan, coupled with the strong performance of Team Canada, both Ms. Eclectic and I tend to agree that Team Canada looks to be in the strongest position, going into the playoffs. At the same time, all the teams in the playoffs are good and could end up on hot streaks: Nova Scotia pulled off some late wins under pressure to qualify, and BC came on with both luck and strength also to qualify. And both Ontario and Saskatchewan have shown considerable ability and dominance at times in the round robin. So even if Team Canada wins (again), it will not be easy for them.

Scotties Draw 17

Two matches matter for what follows. TSN is featuring Canada-Alberta, both looking for playoff spots, and also playing is Saskatchewan-British Columbia, where BC is fighting to stay alive. Saskatchewan is in the Page 1-2 playoff whatever. Oh and Ontario can do well by beating Quebec so this is a highly relevant evening.

Team Canada take two in the first end. In the second, Kleibrink, drawing, comes up way short and allows a steal of two.

I will check back in on occasion but this seems over.

After three ends it is Canada 5-0. Oh dear.

In four, Kleibrink gets two. So I will not quit watching.

Wow - Saskatchewan is up 5-1 over BC. We may well not see Kelly Scott later this week. Meanwhile, Ontario and Quebec are quibbling. 2-1 QC.

Hmm. Maybe I am utterly wrong. At the last shot of the fifth end Jones faces finve Alberta counters. Her brilliant runback lets her team take one.

Sorry I am fading away to sleep. We would be lucky if Doc can at aleast summarize at the ehd or the day/

Scotties Draw 16

We are getting into elimination territory. TSN is featuring Canada versus Nova Scotia, both able to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, with Ontario winning this morning, PEI has lost its shot at the playoffs.
The teams have traded singletons with the hammer for three ends, with skip shots on both sides not quite forcing the single, but the final shot not making the double. Canada, with the initial hammer, is up 2-1.

In the fourth end we now have a NS rock apparently just outside the rings, but, needless almost to say, Jennifer Jones gives it one careful look. In then it does not matter as NS take one to tie it up 2-2.

In the fifth end we have yet another biter that might or might not be in! Canada has put some wonderful rocks also barely into the front of the house behind the cover of a pair of center-line guards. And Nova Scotia has been stripping them and the guards to a degree. Lawes puts a beauty behind cover in the front of the eight-ffot. It is fun watching her banter with Jones - it seems a bit like mother and daughter, and I doubt that Cathy Overton offered Jones that relationship in recent years. Smith comes up short in a freeze attempt. Jones puts another beside it. Smith misses a runback to leave Jones a draw to the house for three. She has now decided to stop missing those hosts and is up 5-2 after five.

In six, a Jones freeze comes up short, letting Smith draw to the button for two. 5-4. This is a better match than I had hoped it would be especially after the fifth end.

Canada blanks seven; meanwhile BC, trying to hang on to a playoff possibility, pulls back into a tie with New brunswick. Eight is blanked too.

In nine we get a conga line of rocks from both teams after a bunch of freezes; it is fun to watch Jill Office bust up such conga lines, as she did here. She leaves a couple in play but the battlefield is cleaner. Amusingly, on skip rocks, Jones invites her coach to the ice by saying "Time, or whatever", which I admit I find an amusing reference to the shifting rules from year to year; it also delighted me as it shows me a sense of humor in Jones, whom I always picture as a sort of corporate lawyer on the ice. Smith's last rock misses an angle freeze, leaving Jones an open hit for four; and she makes it. 9-4. And handshakes.

Both teams remain in the running for the playoffs (or tiebreakers).

TSN switch to the BC match against New Brunswick, in the tenth end at 4-4, and New Brunswick with the hammer. We appear to be on second third rocks (I always love writing that). Heading to skip rocks we have two BC rocks side by side in the front of the button, with a NB rock just behind on the T-line. Scott puts up a center line guard. Kelly clears the guard in a Plan B. Scott makes a shot I do not get, leaving Kelly an open hit for one and the win. Kelly misses enough to allow BC to win and maintain the hope of a playoff or tiebreaker spot.

I note that the arrival of the coaches on the ice is wonderfully described by Linda Moore as an 'intervention'. I love the implications.

If In Doubt, Measure!

At the conclusion of the second end of the match between Nova Scotia and Alberta, there were two rocks that were pretty close, but to nearly everyone's eyes, it looked as if the Alberta (yellow) rock was shot rock. But Nova Scotia wisely asked for a measurement, recalling that BC lost a point earlier in the tournament by misjudging whether a rock was in the rings.

It turned out the measurement showed the Nova Scotia rock was noticeably closer to the pin.

Makes me wonder about the accuracy of the painting of those rings in Charlottetown.

Wednesday: Two Interesting Turn-abouts

Wednesday was a day of two interesting turnabouts at the 2011 Scott Tournament of Hearts Canadian Women's Curling Championship.

The major turnabout was with the Ontario rink, skipped by Rachel Homan. Ontario lost both its games on Wednesday, dropping a 7-4 decision to Team Canada in the morning and then losing 10-6 to Manitoba in the afternoon. In both these games, Homan curled poorly (only 64% in the morning and 71% in the afternoon) and was clearly struggling, both in terms of shot-making and in terms of her mental outlook. Those losses dropped Ontario's record to 6 wins and 3 losses, putting them in a four-way tie for second place. Ontario looked like a super-dominant team at the Scotties, but their losses on Wednesday dropped them back into the real world of the fallible. How, and whether, they rebound in Thursday's games against NW/YT and Quebec will be very interesting to watch.

The other turnabout on Wednesday involved the two wins by Manitoba, skipped by Cathy Overton-Clapham. Going into the day's action, Manitoba was tied for last place with a pathetic 1-6 record. But they took on two of the leaders on Wednesday and emerged victorious. The entire Manitoba team seemed to curl much better on Wednesday, defeating Ontario 10-6 in the afternoon and capping the day with an emotional win over Team Canada 8-6 in the nightcap. In those two games, Cathy-O curled 88% and 93%, respectively.

It was clear that Manitoba had the support of the crowd, who near the end of the match against the Jennifer Jones rink which had fired her last April, were chanting "Ca-thy O! Ca-thy O!" etc.

The on-ice civility of the Cathy-O and Jones teams (yes I did sneak back now and then to watch a bit of the game) was heart-warming and inspiring. Ms. Eclectic and I differ considerably in our assessments of the situation between those teams, but we were both quite pleased with the politeness and civility that imbues at least the surface in the world of curling.

The loss by Team Canada also dropped them back to a record of 6-3, tied for second place with Ontario, Alberta, and Nova Scotia. And speaking of Nova Scotia, they handed Saskatchewan its only defeat so far, a game in which Amber Holland's rink curled no better than they did in several of their games during the Saskatchewan playdowns. With those four teams tied for second and with BC right behind them at 5-4, today's curling will certainly be fun to watch. Unfortunately because of other plans, I'll likely miss both the afternoon and evening draws.